Indo-Pak Talks: Tit For Tat Always

India called off foreign secretary level bilateral talks post separatist – Huriyat conference leaders met Pakistani High Commission. This provided good opportunity to Modi government to show some tuff stand to Pakistan & cancel the meeting (Even if meeting would have happened, it would have been ended without any conclusion). Indo-Pakistan talks are always a real drama & just to show their respective subject that we are trying to solve problems in peaceful power. But, at the end what we see both parties reiterating their stated positions on unresolved matter & providing opportunity to people of both countries to attack each other on social network sites.

 

So coming on todays issue, few Huriyat leaders met PHC at New Delhi as per Pakistan’s tradition to pressurize India by raising issue of Kashmir. Firstly, PM Nawaz Sharif avoided meeting with Huriyat leaders in his May India visit which was very prudent on his part. On the other hand ,Pakistan’s leadership is well aware that Kashmiri’s don’t want to be part of Pakistan (Few Huriyat leaders have also said that) but still like to play this game always. Unfortunate but India should not gain though we lose more was always Pakistan’s foreign policy.

I feel sad about Nawaz Sharif who is in his third term of premiership. Last time, when he initiated peace process with Atal Bihari Vajpayee, his chosen man, army general Musharaf betrayed him & sent troops to Kargil. World was almost near to a nuclear war & India totally lost trust on Pakistan’s civil leadership. In present days also Mr. Sharif is struggling against anti government protests by former Cricketer Imran Khan & religious leader Mr Qadri.  Pakistani government lost important opportunity to score a point in front of Pakistani people by restarting dialogues with India.

At the end two beneficiaries first Indian government who knows very well that this time is not good to resume dialogues because of political condition in Pakistan and ceasefire violation. Cancelling meeting with Pakistan shows strong face of BJP government. Second beneficiary is Huriyat conference, a separatist lobby which we had almost forgotten. Huriyat leaders came in national media limelight pre Kashmir election, though they don’t have metal to stand in election. But, they know that its easy to get publicity than getting votes from Kashmiri people. So, who lost again? Peace lobbies in both the nations or around 1.4bn people of both nations who wants permanent end of this proxy strategies.

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                 

Afghanistan end game begins!!! part 1

 

As NATO forces prepared to withdraw their forces, Afghanistan forces have to fight Talibani extremist all alone.  New Afghanistan government post election has to deal security issues very strongly. Here I would like to write possibilities & implication of Afghanistan end game.

Implications to US

*If new Afghan government signs a new security treaty US will keep force of c 10000 solders. They will help Afghan to protect big towns but such small force would not help to much to conduct covert operations against terrorist.

*US is debt ridden & has seriously made mind to cut down their defence budget. They don’t want to many military foreign bases. They have destroyed Al Qaeda on the paper but don’t want to accept that Talibanis are same forces. They just want exit.

Implications to Afghanistan

*After NATO forces drawdown, Afghan forces has to face Taliban all alone. Government would be worried about defence budgets.  They need US/IMF funding line for many more years.  How their neighbors - India, Pakistan & Iran helps them is very important.

* Maintaining their ethnic stability is 2^nd most important aspect in Afghanistan.  History is full of ethnic wars.

Implications to Pakistan

*Pakistan used Afghanistan as their second base to fire on India. Pakistani Army want peaceful & FRIENDLY Afghanistan. The word friendly means they should be pro Pakistan & anti India.

*As Pakistan itself under many terrorist attacks , Pakistan civil-military is confused about afghan strategy. They want to help selective millitant groups to regain some power but I don’t think they want to totally destabilize Afghans. But there is a serious possibility that Pakistan might change their stand.

Implications to India

*India desperately need stable Afghan to maintain stability in subcontinent. India has invested billions of dollar in Afghan infrastructure, transport and defense. Indians don’t want Afghan should again become sanctuaries terrorism export.

*India can become offensive to protect their interest in Afghanistan as Indians want to demonstrate world that they are global power & they can handle problems in its backyard. Its like power demonstration to world for permanent UN security council seat.

At the end, If Afghanistan government succeeds in protecting large part of country it will be a big event for stability in region. If this happen like Afghanistan , India would be biggest beneficiary.

Iraq Turmoil, ISIS and implications on India

As Mr john Kerry is in Baghdad providing some assurance to Iraqui regime but made him clear that he is not interested in striking ISIS militants . Political unstability in Syria-Iraq, corrupt rulling regime and anger among people provided perfect opporutinty for extremists & they seized it. My purpose is here to find out what will be implications of this conflict to India.

 

India a shining democracy will have both short term & long term economical political impact

1.     Iraq is a second largest exporter of oil in the Opec bloc & accounts for c 3% world oil output. India imports 70% of energy needs. Further increase in Brent which is C$115 will spike up fuel inflation. India which is expected to experience below average Monsoon would see things getting worstened due to high fuel inflation. RBI has good forex reserves but high inflation will frustrate policy makers.

2.       I have serious concerns about ISIS as militant organization. ISIS is funded by its Saudi masters. Few months back Saudi leaders gave a grant of $1.5bn to Pakistan. Many Pakistani media people accused Government for signing some secrete military deal with Saudis to help them to create some unrest in Syria. There is a high probability that retired Pakistani generals are training ISIS zhihadists. Pakistani's infamous ISI would try to gain some footprints in Iraq as Afghanistani leadership is no longer under their control. ISI might try to use proxies against India.

3.       Long term middle East Shiite- Sunni problem might lead to some protests in India as both groups have sizable population in India.

 

 

Election 2014: Why this time it's different?!!

General elections 2014 would be very crucial for people of India for lots of reasons. Economy is growing at low single digit and masses haven’t got any “Roti, kapada aur Makaan" yet.World is curious about our election results. People are asking lot of questions like Can anyone get absolute majority? Ab ki bar Modi sarkar , really ? Whether new leadership would be pro business? How to reduce inequality? Who can become a strong PM ? etc etc.,  We will get answers of few questions in third week of May & few issues would take years to resolve. I tried to find out few key positives from election campaigns & general mood of people.

Issue based elections: Development, growth, jobs are most used words by leaders this time than religion, mandir-masjid, language and region. Media has increased people awareness & people for sure cannot be fooled by offering money one day before election. I am not saying our election debates are as smooth & well directed as they are in US but we can definitely see change in mindset & transition towards better politics.

Social media, nothing is private: Political parties are using FB, twitter or whatever social media product available on earth. Now it’s difficult to cheat. People immediately share what leaders are saying, express their opinions on it. Better media coverage & social media improves transparency. Now leaders can easily reach out to masses. Every political party has used Google hangouts for accessing meets which is actually cool. Social media shares everything & any negative comment from political leader immediately come under scanner 'yah public hai wo sub janti hai'

Youngistan is stepping up to take over: This time young bees will play a crucial role in  politics. Indian youngsters actively taking parts in all debates, discussions over who is better candidate is good sign. On TV debate also you can see lot of young faces debating on their party positions. The more the young people in the system, the more ideas we will get. Theses young people are mostly educated people would not vote for them for money and keep party leaders on their toes. So going forwards I see youngistan is taking over the baton from old corrupt leaders.

Rise of AAM Aadmi : I believe Anna Hazare fasting for janlokpal bill was a game changer. First time people saw that they can bend politicians if they want. So people who used to say that “system nahin badlega” was shocked & amazed to see that it can. One person can not change the system but if people unite they can change the system. Arvind Kejriwal separated from activist & started its own party & unifies collective mood of anti corruption of India. This was a big event . AAP’s Delhi victory was shock to rational parties. All political parties are now more cautious on corruption and character of leader. You may dislike Arvind kejriwal but you can't take away this credit from him.

There are many more positives of election this time. I don’t expect a revolution in one day, I believe more in evolution. I believe we are changing, and improving. Leaders will change only when people will change; what we have to do is to accelerate the pace of change.